Tax Baseline Key to Debt Fight

by Chidem Kurdas

Neither House Republican Speaker John Boehner  nor Senate Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid propose tax increases in their competing deficit and debt-ceiling plans. Indeed, the Reid plan’s omission of tax hikes is described by Democrats as a major concession to Republicans.

But even if there are no new obligations, taxes are primed to go up. That baseline, biased in favor of a growing tax burden, is key to proposed deals and will no doubt remain the pivotal point in budget negotiations long after the current debt ceiling is broached.

In a recent report on the long-term fiscal outlook, the Congressional Budget Office  estimated that the wide range of tax increases built into current law would generate substantial additional tax revenue and boost the share of taxes to levels not seen in recent decades. That’s the baseline scenario.