by Jerry O'Driscoll* The U.S. economy has been growing slowly but steadily since the trough of the Great Recession in June 2009. Deep recessions are typically followed sharp recoveries. Not so this time. More recently, there is the mystery of low inflation. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE index, has consistently fallen short … Continue reading Fed Policy and Velocity’s Dance
by Mario Rizzo The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is growing again at an annual 3.5% rate for the third quarter of 2009. Some people say this means that the recession is over. Apart from the much-touted stubborn unemployment problem, does this make sense? The government is spending and will be spending massively. Some of that … Continue reading Behold: The Recovery Is At Hand
by Mario Rizzo Some business forecasters with a not-too-bad record are predicting that the recession will be over by the end of the year. (NBER dates the beginning to December 2007.) Of course, the recovery in terms of real output from the Great Depression began in the 3Q of 1933 and that did not preclude … Continue reading What Ended The Great Recession?